February 2012
1 post
Apologies
I want to apologize to any readers who have noticed my absence over the last two months. Ever since my boss David was named senior advisor to the Newt Gingrich campaign, I’ve tried laying low and avoiding political commentary. On the occasions when I’ve appeared, I’ve had to awkwardly tiptoe around the fact that I am:
a) Not personally affiliated with nor a supporter of the...
December 2011
5 posts
“He was born in an obscure village, the child of a peasant woman. He grew up in...”
– Dr. James Allan Francis, 1926.
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Destined to Win, Doomed to Fail →
I wrote a post late yesterday at Huffington Post Pollster offering a critical take on the cases both for Obama’s inevitable victory and inevitable loss next November.
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London Calling →
In November, I was invited to be a guest on The World Tonight on BBC Radio 4, talking about Herman Cain. (Clip begins around 33 minutes.) This was, of course, pre-Ginger White. For some reason, my voice is nearly unrecognizable. I think I was trying not to slip into a Madonna/Britney Spears style faux British accent.
November 2011
2 posts
WatchI got to join the crew at FoxNews.com LIVE on Wednesday to talk about Newt Gingrich and whether or not he can survive the bright spotlight that shines on the leader in the 2012 polls. Fun stuff! (I also was on Lou Dobbs Tonight on Fox Business last night, but alas, I can’t find video to embed.)
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August 2011
6 posts
“A pundit should aspire to inspire in every viewer the thought: “I...”
– A wise take on the world of punditry, from Andrew Cohen at the Atlantic.
SXSW Interactive 2011: Panel Picker Time!
One of the biggest, coolest conferences out there, South by Southwest is a multifaceted film/music/tech conference that takes over Austin, TX every spring. I’ve never been, but my first exposure to the conference came from a college TA who attended in 2004 who came back and told our class we all needed to listen to an up-and-coming band named Modest Mouse.
For the 2011 SXSW Interactive,...
Rick Perry: Niche or National Candidate? →
My latest at Huffington Post Pollster is all about Rick Perry’s chances of winning the Presidency if he is the GOP nominee. I take a look at his exit polling numbers among key swing groups and compare them to John McCain’s in 2008 in Texas and to the House Republicans’ nationwide in 2010. The numbers are all remarkably similar, which to me indicates two things: 1)He runs about as...
“Ultimately, this won’t be an election decided on personality; it will be...”
– From my latest at the NYT “Room for Debate” on Rick Perry and the “Bush effect.”
SXSW Panel Proposal: Big Data →
I’ve been asked by Patrick Ruffini to join a proposed South by Southwest Interactive panel all about the use of data in campaigns. Since I deal in market research, my role in the panel is to talk about how conventional research is becoming less and less useful, and how big data is the next wave of how to understand voter behavior (though not without some caveats). Please vote for our panel!
Romney, Iowa, and the Economy →
Every so often I do a short blurb over at Politico’s “Arena” and today I jotted down some thoughts on Romney’s decision to lay low in Iowa. I ultimately think you’ve got to be able to win a lot of states with an economic message if you want to have a shot, which means neither an Iowa-centric or an Iowa-avoidant strategy is as good as an across the board jobs-focused...
July 2011
3 posts
“If an agreement is not reached and nervous voters watch their retirement...”
– From my piece this week at New York Times’ “Room for Debate” about the real consequences of a failure to find a deal on the debt ceiling.
The Muddled Middle →
This week’s “Wilshire and Washington” podcast from Variety is all about the political center, labels, and getting the tone of political discourse into a nicer zone.
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WatchBack to Bloggingheads! Bill and I tackle the debt limit, migraines and News Corp.
June 2011
1 post
May 2011
3 posts
Mitt's Moment →
I wrote a piece last month for The Daily about how Mitt Romney had been doing all the right things in his efforts to court voters in his potential quest for the GOP nomination. Since then, he’s had some rough patches - most notably the tough Wall Street Journal editorial eviscerating his health care stance. I still think, however, that with an economic focus, Romney has a very potent...
WatchThis week’s BHTV subbed in Matt Lewis in the place of the usual Bill Scher. In it, Matt and I break down the 2012 field and talk about the immigration issue.
I was in the UF Student Senate when President... →
This is the resolution I wrote that passed the UF Student Senate that summer. I found an old hard drive from my college laptop and have been trolling through the archives. Upon finding this, I couldn’t help but smile.
April 2011
4 posts
New PJTV Show! →
Exciting news! I’ll be co-hosting a new show for PJTV, a yet unnamed program featuring Amy Holmes and Katie Pavlich where we talk current events from a younger, fresher perspective.
We’re all women, but don’t assume this show is a “women’s interest” program; I’ve long said that ALL issues are women’s issues. (Plus, would an “all guy”...
WatchBloggingheads.tv, where Bill and I talk Libya, Libya, Libya, and then shutdown, shutdown, shutdown.
I’m almost sad I’m off this week so I can’t come to the vociferous defense of Paul Ryan. Alas, I’m sure I’ll have a chance on the 15th instead.
March 2011
3 posts
“I’m convinced that the Democrats will run a fear-driven campaign, the...”
– Reihan Salam, on the money (as usual), here at the end of a post at NRO’s “The Agenda” about “Burrito Rage” and the increasing price of food and fuel.
WatchAnd…another BHTV! This time with Suzy Khimm of Mother Jones. We talk about spending, continuing resolutions, Boehner’s struggle to keep his coalition together, and nuclear power. I manage to make a SimCity reference; if we only wait a few more decades, fusion power is supposed to get invented and save us all, right?
WatchThis is a BHTV from a few weeks ago, where Bill and I talk Newt, spending, and more. The New York Times picked up a clip from the diavlog here where I give my assessment of Newt’s viability.
February 2011
2 posts
WatchThis is a little bit old but I wanted to post anyhow. I got to join one of my favorite Dem ladies, Liz Chadderdon, on CNN International’s Political Mann. We talk health care repeal/replace and the joys of divided government.
“…three of the insiders I queried — Fox News’ Bill Hemmer,...”
– Politics Daily’s Matt Lewis, on my pre-season NFL prediction that came true…
January 2011
1 post
WatchSorry to post so erratically these days! I’ll try to get back into the swing of things. It has been a big couple of weeks since the holidays with travel all over the place (not to mention the really wonderful fact that Chris asked me to marry him!). (I promise not to bombard this blog with dispatches from inside the core of the wedding-industrial complex, just fyi.)
This Bloggingheads...
December 2010
2 posts
WatchSorry - more video! This time, an entirely different format than the two-sentence-soundbite world of cable news. I’m lucky enough to occasionally co-host Bloggingheads.tv’s show This Week In Blog, where LiberalOasis’ Bill Scher and I do a roundup of what the blogosphere is talking about. Doing the show is nice because it keeps my debate skills sharpened in a longer format....
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November 2010
2 posts
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WatchLast Thursday, I joined Reason’s Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch along with the Institute for Humane Studies’ David Kirby, for a conversation about the long-term impact of the elections.
WatchElection fever! In the wake of the elections, I’ve been blogging up a storm. Election night I popped in over at NRO with a handful of posts. There’s one pointing out the similarities between 1994 and 2010, and there’s another discussing the net impact of the Tea Party on the elections. Finally, I turned my attention to my home state of Florida for a breakdown of the preliminary...
October 2010
4 posts
“In states like Wisconsin and Florida, campaign commercials featuring women and...”
– New York Times, “Democrats Try to Revive Women’s Enthusiasm.” The problem is that Democrats are used to appealing to women only on the issues that they believe appeal to women. As it turns out, women care about defense. And taxes. And spending. And the economy. You have to have...
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WatchI had the chance to go on CNN International’s “Political Mann” last week. While I was in the makeup room, Skip (the fantastic makeup artist) told me he had to hurry because he had to get Condoleezza Rice finished up by 9 as well. For those who know how deeply I admire Condi, you can also imagine that my heart practically stopped. Unfortunately, I had no run-in with her, but I...
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WatchSorry for the back-to-back video posts! I also did CNN International’s “Political Mann” on Friday and was a guest along with Sam Bennett from Women’s Campaign Forum. We talked about Congress’ speedy departure from DC without passing a budget. I was optimistic - I think that if, for instance, we have a Speaker Boehner, we won’t see two years of absolute...
WatchI was lucky enough to be a guest on PBS’ “To The Contrary” this past weekend. We talked about whether or not Democrats have dropped the ball on women voters. My point was that we have to stop thinking about women’s concerns and men’s concerns as if they are a radically different list. Everyone was surprised at the emergence of “Security Moms” (except, of...
September 2010
20 posts
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What Obama Ought To Do →
I was invited to participate in the NYT’s “Room for Debate,” a daily feature that lets academics and analysts write mini-opeds on the day’s topic. The question posed was about Obama’s strategy through the elections. I suggested Obama and crew not spend time focused solely on Republicans and take time to win back the coalition that bought into his vision. He needs to...
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Disaster Averted: Young Voters Now Dislike...
My thesis was all about the impending doom facing the GOP if it didn’t wise up and reach out to younger voters. I don’t think many folks foresaw just how much the winds of political change would whip around and blow the opposite direction just two years after the election of Barack Obama, and the Rock The Vote survey out today shows that - thankfully - young voters have backed away...
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Let's Go Marco
There are a handful of polls out in the Florida Senate primary. Things aren’t looking as rosy for Governor Crist these days (thank heavens), but I don’t know which poll I think is more on the money between Time/CNN’s poll of RVs that has Rubio + 2 or the Sunshine State News poll of LVs that shows Rubio +14. It is nice to see him pivot out of primary mode and put a solid...
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“They spend most weekends together; they walk in the park…play bocce or the...”
– The New Yorker’s profile of Mark Zuckerberg, on what he and his girlfriend spend their free time doing. It is nice to know that even with billions of dollars, he still spends his free time doing the same things that I do. Hat tip to Mindy Finn for the quote.
“While Democrats have a congressional majority in many other districts...”
– Jay Cost, over at Weekly Standard.
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WatchI got invited to do Bloggingheads.tv again alongside Bill Scher for “This Week In Blog.” Having properly understood the assignment (don’t necessarily opine, instead, summarize and synthesize the opinions of others), I think this was a great episode! If you’ve got an hour, it is worth watching us run down the latest buzz in the blogosphere over the tea parties, Rahm, tax...
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WatchIn the whirl of cross-country travel last week I completely forgot to post my episode of The Right Idea featuring Sergio Rodriguera Jr. of Sphere Consulting and Tyler Harber of Wilson Research Strategies! The guys and I had a great discussion about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, primary upsets, and - of course - extreme weather. Congratulations to Tyler on his wedding, too!