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Posted 6 months ago

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Rick Perry: Niche or National Candidate?

My latest at Huffington Post Pollster is all about Rick Perry’s chances of winning the Presidency if he is the GOP nominee. I take a look at his exit polling numbers among key swing groups and compare them to John McCain’s in 2008 in Texas and to the House Republicans’ nationwide in 2010. The numbers are all remarkably similar, which to me indicates two things: 1)He runs about as well as an average Republican among swing voters, meaning he shouldn’t be counted out as a niche candidate outside the mainstream, yet 2)he needs to do better if he wants to have a chance at defeating President Obama in 2012.

Posted 6 months ago

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Ultimately, this won’t be an election decided on personality; it will be an election decided on vision.
From my latest at the NYT “Room for Debate” on Rick Perry and the “Bush effect.”

Posted 6 months ago

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SXSW Panel Proposal: Big Data

I’ve been asked by Patrick Ruffini to join a proposed South by Southwest Interactive panel all about the use of data in campaigns. Since I deal in market research, my role in the panel is to talk about how conventional research is becoming less and less useful, and how big data is the next wave of how to understand voter behavior (though not without some caveats).  Please vote for our panel!

Posted 6 months ago

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Romney, Iowa, and the Economy

Every so often I do a short blurb over at Politico’s “Arena” and today I jotted down some thoughts on Romney’s decision to lay low in Iowa. I ultimately think you’ve got to be able to win a lot of states with an economic message if you want to have a shot, which means neither an Iowa-centric or an Iowa-avoidant strategy is as good as an across the board jobs-focused strategy.

Posted 6 months ago

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If an agreement is not reached and nervous voters watch their retirement accounts and stock portfolios take a hit, this moment will stick. The debt ceiling debate will no longer be just bothersome; it will be a real threat to personal economic security.
From my piece this week at New York Times’ “Room for Debate” about the real consequences of a failure to find a deal on the debt ceiling.

Posted 6 months ago

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The Muddled Middle

This week’s “Wilshire and Washington” podcast from Variety is all about the political center, labels, and getting the tone of political discourse into a nicer zone.

Posted 6 months ago

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Back to Bloggingheads! Bill and I tackle the debt limit, migraines and News Corp.

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Posted 8 months ago

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Great news! Next week, the lovely Maegan Carberry and I will jump start Variety’s “Wilshire and Washington” online radio show with Ted Johnson.  We took this picture together at the 2011 “Webutante Ball” on Tuesday night in New York (photo courtesy www.dianalevine.com)

Great news! Next week, the lovely Maegan Carberry and I will jump start Variety’s “Wilshire and Washington” online radio show with Ted Johnson.  We took this picture together at the 2011 “Webutante Ball” on Tuesday night in New York (photo courtesy www.dianalevine.com)

Posted 9 months ago

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Mitt's Moment

I wrote a piece last month for The Daily about how Mitt Romney had been doing all the right things in his efforts to court voters in his potential quest for the GOP nomination. Since then, he’s had some rough patches - most notably the tough Wall Street Journal editorial eviscerating his health care stance. I still think, however, that with an economic focus, Romney has a very potent strength to play to and is a very serious contender for the nomination.

Posted 9 months ago

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This week’s BHTV subbed in Matt Lewis in the place of the usual Bill Scher.  In it, Matt and I break down the 2012 field and talk about the immigration issue.